Brock Purdy and the 49ers efficiency reality
Brock Purdy maintains a 4.54 EPA/game even when adjusting for Kyle Shanahan's system and elite teammates. While George Kittle's presence significantly boosts rushing efficiency, the 49ers offense recently struggled against Seattle, converting only 2 of 9 third downs.
The efficiency of Brock Purdy
Brock Purdy maintains a 5.51 EPA/game this season. Critics label him a system quarterback who relies on Kyle Shanahan and elite teammates. Even if you remove the 0.71 EPA/game Shanahan provides to his quarterbacks and adjust for his skill teammates, Purdy still averages 4.54 EPA/game. This places him 13th in the league, ahead of Matthew Stafford and Derek Carr. You should ignore the narrative that his success is an illusion. Purdy has a 72.3 percent completion rate and 9.5 yards per attempt. He has 12 touchdown passes this season and 76 in his career. Purdy also added 93 rushing yards and one rushing score during the season. He is 34 attempts away from qualifying for the all-time leaderboard in passer rating. His 61.9 percent success rate is high, and his 10.5 adjusted net yards per attempt is a high mark. Purdy is 26 years old with a career passer rating of 105.7.
Kittle and tactical manipulation
George Kittle provides more than receiving production. In a 20-10 win over the Atlanta Falcons, Kittle had zero receptions because of his return from a hamstring injury. The 49ers averaged 5.4 yards per carry with 1.4 yards before contact when Kittle played. San Francisco managed just 2.0 yards per attempt and minus 2.1 yards before contact when he sat on the sideline. Kittle has 51 career touchdowns, and 23 of those came from Purdy. Purdy holds the NFL’s best passer rating to a single target since 2000 with 100 or more targets. Shanahan manipulates defensive rules through 21 personnel and pre-snap motion. The play call uses a Y rail concept where the receiver runs a dig route to manipulate hook guys. Kittle has 3,298 receiving yards in 50 games with Purdy compared to 489 yards in 12 games without him. Kittle also recorded 67 yards and two touchdowns in the win over Arizona and a 56-yard touchdown catch against the Denver Broncos. Kittle caught four passes for 70 yards against Denver and averaged 4.8 yards per catch against Seattle. He has 127 career appearances.
| Player | Metric | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Brock Purdy | 2026 TD Count | 12 |
| George Kittle | Career TD Receptions | 51 |
| 49ers | Season 3rd Down Conv % | 51% |
The third down disconnect
The 49ers offense struggles to maintain consistency against elite defenses. The team entered their matchup against the Seattle Seahawks with a league-high 51 percent third-down conversion rate. This follows a stretch where they had a 59 percent conversion rate on third downs during their previous six games. The Seahawks defense allows only 32 percent conversions. San Francisco converted only 2 for 9 on third downs and 0 for 2 on fourth downs in a loss where they gained only 180 total yards and 9 first downs. This ugly performance resulted in only 3 points. Purdy recently posted a 140.3 passer rating against the Tennessee Titans with 23 completions on 30 attempts for 295 yards and three touchdowns, which included a career-long 26-yard run. He also rushed for 44 yards. This marked his seventh career game with a passer rating of 140.0 or higher. He completed 76.7 percent of his passes that day. Christian McCaffrey had 22 carries for 73 yards and an 11-yard rushing touchdown. He has 345 total touches this season. The team’s 180 total yards was their fewest in the eight-year Shanahan era; the Seahawks held the 49ers to low yardage. The 49ers are 5-0. Can the offense regain its efficiency?
