Josh Allen leads the 2026 NFL MVP race through October

Buffalo scoring and MVP odds

Josh Allen leads the 2026 NFL MVP race with +200 odds, though Brock Purdy at +220 keeps the margin narrow. The Buffalo Bills hold a 6-2 record following a 28-21 victory over the Kansas City Chiefs. During that Week 9 matchup, Allen completed 23 of 26 passes for 273 yards and one touchdown. This win helped Buffalo climb the standings while the Chiefs fell to 5-4. Allen has nine total touchdowns without a turnover through two games. You might find his recent surge unexpected given the competition from Patrick Mahomes and Trevor Lawrence. Mahomes dropped to second place in the MVP conversation after the loss to Buffalo. This result also left the Chiefs trailing the Jacksonville Jaguars for the final playoff spot in the AFC. Allen holds the lead in the MVP conversation. The match between Allen and Mahomes marks the tenth time these two players have faced each other in their professional careers. The Bills also secured a 33-30 win against the Raiders in Week 6.

The Bills offense averaged 30 points in each of their four games to start the season. This scoring frequency helped Buffalo achieve a 5-1 record through Week 6. James Cook also contributes to the scoring with six touchdowns on the season. Allen has 83 career rushing touchdowns, which puts him ahead of many legendary players in the record books. In Week 6 against the Las Vegas Raiders, Allen threw a touchdown to Keon Coleman and a rushing touchdown. James Cook also scored his sixth touchdown of the season during that 33-30 win.

Red zone efficiency and rushing records

The Buffalo offense averages 3.0 red zone touchdowns per game in 2026, which places them second in the league behind only the Detroit Lions according to the latest team rankings provided. This scoring rate follows a pattern where the offense remains highly productive once they cross the 20-yard line. Allen has a unique advantage near the goal line. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to record multiple rushing touchdowns in three consecutive games. Allen also joined Jim Brown, Marshall Faulk, and LaDainian Tomlinson as one of only four players with at least six rushing touchdowns in nine consecutive seasons.

Allen remains a scoring threat despite throwing four red zone interceptions this season. He completed 114 passes for 1,504 yards and nine touchdowns in the red zone. His 102.1 red zone passer rating supports an offense that finds the end zone frequently. Allen has 83 career rushing touchdowns, which exceeds the career totals of many prominent quarterbacks. This efficiency allows the Bills to stay competitive even when they trail. Allen also recorded a 255-yard game against the Las Vegas Raiders. In the 2026 season, Allen has already recorded 12 rushing touchdowns from inside the 20.

Scoring patterns and momentum

The Bills rely on efficiency inside the 20. Allen completed 66.7 percent of his 114 red zone attempts this season. He has 12 rushing touchdowns from that area. The offense struggles when he turns the ball over, as he recorded four interceptions in the red zone already. One weakness remains his tendency to lose the ball in high-pressure situations. Allen is the clear choice for the MVP if he maintains this touchdown production. Can Buffalo sustain this red zone scoring as they face tougher divisional opponents? The offense recorded 114 completions for 1,504 yards in the red zone, which allowed Buffalo to maintain momentum during scoring drives. Allen recorded a rushing touchdown against the Raiders in Week 6. James Cook scored his sixth touchdown of the season during the Week 6 victory. The Bills offense also relies on the consistent production of James Cook to complement Allen’s scoring.