Sean Payton’s Broncos face October red-zone efficiency collapse
The Denver Broncos offense has failed to score in the second and third quarters for three consecutive games this October. Bo Nix has struggled with a rising interception rate, contributing to a red-zone touchdown conversion rate of only 65 percent.
October red-zone regression
The Denver Broncos offense is undergoing a historic collapse this October. For the first time in franchise history, the team has failed to score any points in the second and third quarters over three consecutive games this month. This scoring void is particularly concerning for a team that is 5-2 in the AFC West. The red-zone efficiency is also regressing. While the team ranks 11th in red-zone trips with 17 opportunities through 6 games, their touchdown conversion rate is 65%. This is a significant drop from the 2025 season when the team ranked 10th in the league. In 2026, the team averages 2.8 red-zone trips per game and maintains a 94% scoring percentage, but they only convert 60% of those trips into touchdowns according to recent data.
Bo Nix and the passing game
Bo Nix is struggling to maintain the efficiency that defined his early career. The quarterback has 3 interceptions through 7 regular-season games this year. In a recent matchup against the Raiders, Nix completed 16 of 28 passes for 150 yards and one touchdown, but two interceptions to cornerback Kyu Blu Kelly effectively neutralized the drive. He has accumulated 1,271 passing yards on 218 attempts this season with 7 touchdowns. His 2024 campaign featured 29 passing touchdowns, the second-most by a rookie in NFL history, but his current pace is much slower. His interception rate has increased compared to his rookie season when he recorded 12 picks in 17 games. In 2025, Nix tallied 3,931 yards and 25 touchdowns, making his current output a concern. Because the Broncos offense has been unable to score in the second and third quarters for three straight games this month, the pressure on Sean Payton to fix the play-calling has never been higher. You can see the regression in advanced metrics as well, as his October EPA per play was 19th among 36 eligible quarterbacks and his completion percentage over expected was 16th among 33.
| 2026 Red Zone Offense | Denver Broncos |
|---|---|
| Red Zone Trips | 17 |
| TD Percentage | 65% |
| Scoring Percentage | 94% |
| Points per Trip | 5.59 |
| Success Rate | 34% |
Payton’s situational mistakes
Sean Payton faces backlash for his play-calling and decision-making in tight contests. He recently defended a controversial fourth-down attempt during a 10-7 loss to the New England Patriots. Denver held a 7-0 lead in the second quarter with backup quarterback Jarrett Stidham under center. Payton chose to go for it deep in Patriots territory instead of taking an automatic field goal. The play resulted in zero yardage and surrendered the momentum to New England. Stidham finished the day with 133 yards, one touchdown, and one interception on 17-for-31 passing. The defense was stout, forcing Drake Maye into only 86 passing yards and recording five sacks, but the offense could not produce enough to win. The decision to bypass a nearly automatic field goal in favor of a fourth-down attempt resulted in zero yardage and handed all momentum back to the New England Patriots. Payton also admitted to looking at the wrong section of the third-down sheet during a 10-7 win over the Raiders, where Nix threw a backward pass to Courtland Sutton that resulted in a 5-yard loss on third-and-1. The defense recorded six sacks on Geno Smith, one interception, and a blocked punt to help secure that win. How can the team overcome these mid-game scoring droughts while the coaching staff continues to struggle with situational execution?
