The Buffalo Bills’ October AFC East surge

The Buffalo Bills hold a 4-1 record and a .800 winning percentage in the AFC East as of October 18, 2026. They lead the New England Patriots, who possess a 3-2 record and a 0.600 winning percentage, and the New York Jets, who maintain a 2-3 standing. The Miami Dolphins sit at the bottom of the division with a 0-5 record and a 0.000 winning percentage. Josh Allen has rushed for 8 touchdowns in 5 games, totaling 239 yards on 43 attempts. On October 12 against the Los Angeles Rams, Allen recorded one rushing touchdown and 121 rushing yards. He also scored one touchdown against the New England Patriots on October 4 and two touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers on September 27. I see his 5.6 yards per carry average as the engine driving this offensive momentum.

Defensive scheme overhaul

The transition to Jim Leonhard’s 3-4 defensive scheme follows the dismissal of Sean McDermott, whose previous 4-3 system struggled with predictability and surrendered 33.1 points per game during the last six postseason elimination contests. This overhaul targets the stagnation that plagued Buffalo in high-stakes games. You probably noticed how the defense often fell victim to predictable play calls in previous seasons. I believe the lack of game-changing plays from the defensive line remains the most glaring deficiency in this roster. The unit still lacks the explosive sack production seen in years past.

Brandon Beane has focused on defensive line depth through various drafts and free agent signings. He selected Ed Oliver in the first round of 2019 and Greg Rousseau in 2021. The team added Deone Walker in the 2025 draft. These players must now adapt to new techniques within the 3-4 structure. The organization also hopes to see better production from players like AJ Epenesa and TJ Sanders. In 2015, a major defensive shift under Rex Ryan led to a regression where the defensive line saw 22.5 fewer sacks than the previous year. During that era, the Buffalo defense fell to 15th in points allowed and 19th in yards allowed.

Scoring in the red zone

The offense requires more consistency to convert opportunities inside the 20-yard line into touchdowns. During Week 10 against the Patriots, the Bills went 4-7 on red zone trips. The offense faced struggles against the Dolphins too, where they went 0-4 in red zone touchdown attempts. C.J. Spiller stated that the team must maintain a higher sense of urgency and seriousness once they enter the red zone. Stevie Johnson agreed that the offense must score touchdowns to reach the playoffs. Ryan Lindell provides field goal stability, but the team needs more scoring.

Josh Allen has maintained a high rushing pace to compensate for these situational struggles. He averages 47.8 rushing yards per game and 5.6 yards per carry this season. He recorded 69 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Detroit Lions on September 17 and two touchdowns against the Houston Texans on September 13. He also gained 22 rushing yards and two touchdowns against the Los Angeles Chargers on September 27. Can the offense find a way to score more touchdowns to avoid relying on field goals?