Djokovic battles for Turin spot as Zverev finds form in Italy

Djokovic struggles with physical fatigue

Novak Djokovic holds 2,330 live points and is 11th in the live Race to Turin. His first-round loss to Mariano Navone at the US Open ended his 77-match Grand Slam winning streak in opening rounds, and the 39-year-old struggled with physical pain and vomiting throughout the match in New York. He currently trails Daniil Medvedev, who is in the eighth qualification spot with 2,780 points. To bridge this gap, Djokovic needs substantial points from the upcoming Shanghai Masters and Paris-Bercy. He remains undecided about playing in Shanghai because he must assess his physical condition after the China Open. He reached the quarterfinals in Beijing after defeating Yunchaokete Bu 4-6, 7-6(2), 6-2, extending his China Open record to 31-0. He is 50 points behind Taylor Fritz in 10th and 79 points behind Rafael Jodar in ninth. His season included a loss to Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open and a third-round defeat to Joao Fonseca at Roland Garros. He also lost to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon semifinals. He was 42-12 in five-set matches before his loss to Navone. You should watch if he can maintain the stamina required for these late-season Masters 1000 events. This physical decline makes his pursuit of a 25th Grand Slam title difficult.

Zverev dominance in Turin

Alexander Zverev won his opening match in Turin with a 6-3, 7-6(6) victory over Ben Shelton. The world number three saved three set points in the second-set tiebreak to secure the win. This result reinforces Zverev’s presence in the Bjorn Borg Group as he pursues a third ATP Finals title. His performance comes during a season where the ATP ranking structure has compressed, making surface specialization more pronounced. Players now build rankings on fewer high-intensity tournaments rather than maintaining competence across all three surfaces. The average age in the ATP top ten is the youngest it has been since the mid-2000s. Zverev has won the ATP Finals in 2018 and 2021. He now faces Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime in his group. Zverev has won eight titles on indoor surfaces and won a gold medal at the Tokyo Olympics. His victory over Shelton extended his head-to-head dominance over the American to four wins in 2025. He previously beat the top two players in consecutive matches to earn his second title in 2022. In that final, he won 20 of 25 points on his serve in the first set.

The math for a late season surge

The 39-year-old Serbian needs to overcome a 450-point deficit to catch Medvedev. His recent season included a loss to Carlos Alcaraz at the Australian Open and a third-round defeat to Joao Fonseca at Roland Garros. He also lost to Jannik Sinner in the Wimbledon semifinals and Mariano Navone in the US Open. His physical issues in New York, specifically regarding his back and shoulder, make his schedule unpredictable. If he plays Shanghai and Paris, he has two chances to claim 1000 points each. He is 12th in the world rankings. This marks the first time since 2018 that he has fallen out of the top ten. He lost to Navone, the world number 49, in a match that lasted four hours and 36 minutes. Djokovic made 70 unforced errors during that match. He has qualified for the ATP Finals 17 times and won the tournament a record seven times. He will fall out of the top ten of the ATP rankings for the first time in eight years. Can he find the health necessary to complete this comeback?