The shifting economics of UFC media rights

The hunt for a billion dollar deal

The UFC media rights deal expires at the end of 2025. I see the promotion chasing a $1 billion annual figure, which triples the current agreement. TKO Group leadership manages negotiations for both UFC and WWE. WWE recently moved "Monday Night Raw" to Netflix in a 10-year, $5 billion deal. This deal for WWE provided an 89% increase in fees compared to their NBC USA Network contract. If the UFC achieves an 89% increase on its $300 million annual ESPN agreement, the total reaches $566 million per year, but TKO Group might reach $1 billion if they include their new boxing promotion in the package. The NFL negotiated over $100 billion in media rights fees, while the NBA average annual value reached $7 billion per year. The UFC’s current deal with ESPN is much larger than its prior deal with Fox. The 2019 agreement with ESPN included $150 million per year for five years. This partnership includes Disney’s ability to broadcast fights through ESPN, ESPN+, and ABC. The UFC purchased the organization for $2 million in 2001. The organization grew after the 2005 Forrest Griffin versus Stephan Bonnar fight became a classic. The UFC fan base grew 68% since the pandemic, and the organization should see a large influx of cash regardless of whether it hits the $1 billion per year mark. You should observe how TKO uses its leadership to push for these higher valuations.

Fighter demands and content shifts

I expect the UFC to keep major events with ESPN while splitting secondary content to a streamer like Netflix. Netflix has 300 million subscribers and already invests in combat sports. The promotion could use "The Ultimate Fighter" reality series to build fans on Netflix, similar to how F1 grew through "Drive to Survive". I find the fighter frustration regarding scheduling quite telling. Paulo Costa, a 35-year-old light heavyweight ranked number 4, has one fight left on his UFC contract and says he will fight elsewhere before the year ends. He criticized officials and claimed the promotion does not want to book him. He previously beat Azamat Murzakanov in April. Josh Hokit also denied that the UFC used AI for pre-fight graphics after fans speculated about a Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates visual. Dominick Reyes also criticized Daniel Cormier for having a clear bias during the UFC 333 broadcast in Abu Dhabi after Reyes won with a head kick. Reyes called Cormier a "low IQ hater" after the fight. In the same event, Petr Yan defeated Merab Dvalishvili by unanimous decision to claim the bantamweight title. Alexander Volkanovski also won the main event by defeating Movsar Evloev via second-round TKO. Lone’er Kavanagh defeated Ramazan Temazor via first-round TKO. Aaron Pico defeated Losene Keita via first-round TKO.

Subscription costs and viewership

ESPN+ subscribers grew 75% year-over-year. ESPN is launching an unlimited streaming package. This service has an early-bird price of $29.99 per month for those joining in the fall. The subscription price increases to $35.99 in 2026. The 2019 ESPN+ deal included 15 live events in English and Spanish, plus coverage of press conferences and weigh-ins. This service includes pre and post-event shows, coverage of press conferences, and new episodes of "Dana White’s Contender Series". It also provides archive programming.

The current cost of a UFC PPV, in addition to the ESPN+ subscription, is $79.99. Existing ESPN+ subscribers pay $59.99 for a PPV event. Will the UFC find a streaming partner willing to match the $1 billion demand?