Chet Holmgren and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drive Thunder success

The Oklahoma City Thunder hold a 64-18 record and the top seed in the Western Conference. They recently defeated the San Antonio Spurs 127-114 in Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals to extend their lead in that series. Chet Holmgren scored 16 points and grabbed 11 rebounds during that contest. He shot 6-for-9 from the floor and limited Victor Wembanyama to 4-for-15 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 32 points and nine assists in the win.

Holmgren finds his rhythm

Mark Daigneault credited Holmgren for having "the gas early" in Game 5. The 24-year-old forward averages 23 points and 10.5 rebounds per game in this postseason series. He also contributes 2.5 blocks per game. Holmgren previously struggled in the Western Conference Finals, where he averaged 17.1 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.7 assists, and 1.9 blocks for the 2025-26 season. His 55.7 percent field goal percentage from last season supported his All-NBA Third Team selection.

I find the Thunder offense completely broken when Gilgeous-Alexander sits on the bench. The team offensive rating drops to 104.2 when he is off the floor, which ranks last in the league. When he plays, the offensive rating reaches 119.8, the second-best mark in the league. This disparity reveals a massive hole in the roster depth. The team lost Luguentz Dort, who provided point-of-attack defense, and Isaiah Joe, who averaged 11.1 points on 42.3 percent three-point shooting last season.

Gilgeous-Alexander relies on the stripe

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander maintains high efficiency despite a shift in his shot volume. He averaged 31.1 points during the regular season but averages 20 points per game in this series against the Lakers. His free throw shooting remains a primary weapon. He averages 9.0 free throw attempts per game for the 2025-26 season and converted 87.9 percent of those attempts. In Game 2 against the Lakers, he recorded a flagrant 1 foul during a play involving Austin Reaves.

You should watch how the team manages the scoring load if his volume drops further. The Thunder offense struggles when they cannot rely on his creation. During a loss to the Golden State Warriors, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 52 points, yet the team still lost 116-109. The team lacks enough secondary creators to compensate for his absence. Jalen Williams averaged 21.4 points in the 2025 playoffs, but his effective field goal percentage sat at 39.4 percent in isolation sets last season.

Tactical shifts and roster gaps

Daigneault uses halftime adjustments to fix offensive stagnation. The Thunder are undefeated this season when they win the third quarter. They outscored opponents 81-53 in the third period during recent games against Philadelphia and Atlanta. These adjustments helped the team overcome slow starts where they trailed at halftime. However, the team lost all five of their losses in the third quarter.

The roster lacks big man depth and long-range shooting. Holmgren remains the leading scorer in this series with 23 points per game, but his shooting hit 27.3 percent in the third quarter of his recent Game 5 performance. The team relies on Ajay Mitchell, who averages 19 points on 50 percent shooting in this series. Mitchell started because Jalen Williams missed 49 games last season with a hamstring strain. Can the bench provide enough scoring if the stars face heavy defensive pressure?