Auston Matthews regains his scoring touch as Leafs adjust systems
Auston Matthews has scored 5 goals in 5 games this October, reversing a decline in shooting metrics seen during the previous season under Craig Berube. This resurgence comes as the team manages offensive shifts following Mitch Marner's end to a 23-game point streak.
Matthews regains his scoring touch
Auston Matthews scored 5 goals in 5 games this October. He netted 1 goal against Utah on October 13, 2 goals against Colorado on October 10, 1 goal against Nashville on October 6, and 1 goal against Ottawa on October 3. This scoring pace contradicts his 2025-26 totals of 53 points in 60 games. I find his recent production impressive because his shot velocity dropped from 95.56 mph to 86.92 mph under previous coaching. He averaged 0.47 goals per game during his two injury-riddled seasons with Craig Berube, which fell significantly below his career average of 0.65 goals per game. His shooting volume also fell from nearly five shots per game under Sheldon Keefe to 3.9 shots per game under Berube. Matthews faced the third hardest average strength of opposition at five-on-five among 357 forwards over the last two seasons, trailing only Joel Eriksson Ek and Jason Dickinson. This heavy workload contributed to his shooting metrics falling in both quality and quantity. He averaged nearly three fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes in all situations under Berube than he did in his final season under Keefe.
Marner’s exit leaves a vacuum
Mitch Marner saw his franchise record 23-game point streak end against the New York Rangers after he failed to record a point during a 3-1 loss where Igor Shesterkin stopped 22 of 23 shots. He currently has 2 goals and 5 assists in 8 games this season. The team faces a massive offensive void because the Maple Leafs only generated 44% of expected goals when Matthews played with Max Domi. Last season, Matthews and Matthew Knies posted a 41.2% xGF% over 465:59 of ice time. You already know the impact Marner had, as the team saw a 53.7% xGF% at even strength when he and Matthews shared the ice last year. His 23-game streak included 12 goals, 25 assists, and 37 points, which featured an 11 game assist streak. The team previously held a 15-game point streak before falling to the Rangers. Without Marner, the team relies on players like Bobby McMann, who has 19 goals in 60 games. Even with William Nylander providing 30 goals in 65 games, the offensive production remains inconsistent.
System changes under Hiller
Jim Hiller replaced Craig Berube to fix the team’s declining offensive output. Berube’s second season with Toronto resulted in the team finishing last in the Atlantic Division and snapping a nine-year playoff streak. Berube’s 200-foot system forced Matthews to take more defensive zone draws and nearly ten additional minutes of defensive ice time. This increased workload shifted Matthews’ offensive zone impact from the 99th percentile to the bottom 50th percentile. Berube also instructed wingers to dump the puck in, a tactic that some players felt limited creative reads at the offensive blue line. Chayka, who replaced predecessor Brad Treliving, must surround Matthews with talent to avoid the 44% xGF% seen with Domi. Chayka previously noted that the organization wants to align on vision and strategy with Matthews to resolve uncertainty about his future. Matthews mentioned that he cannot predict the future during discussions about his long-term status with the club. I recommend the Leafs prioritize finding a high-skill winger to replicate the chemistry Matthews had with Marner. Will the addition of a prospect like Gavin McKenna provide the necessary offensive spark?
