Matchday WED 28 OCT

NHL

Edmonton’s depth outweighs Vegas roster shifts

Edmonton's depth, led by the line of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Derek Ryan, provides a competitive edge over Vegas. Jack Eichel maintains a 187-point pace, but the Golden Knights face roster challenges and cap concerns during a heavy October schedule.

Edmonton's depth outweighs Vegas roster shifts

Eichel line shifts and offensive pressure

The Golden Knights adjust their top six to counter Edmonton’s depth. Jack Eichel centers Ivan Barbashev and Jonathan Marchessault, though some lineups place Mark Stone on the top line with Eichel and Barbashev. This shuffling attempts to maximize the league’s best offense, which averages 4.29 goals per game. I find the Eichel line changes the most logical way to handle the matchup. When Eichel plays against Connor McDavid, Vegas controls 58.98 percent of the shot attempts, 56.07 percent of the expected goals, and 58.06 percent of the scoring chances, even though they remain outscored 2-1 in those 5×5 situations. Eichel currently sits on a 187-point pace this season, having tallied 16 points. This production follows a 94-point season for the forward. The team’s offensive success relies on these top-line rotations to ensure one unit does not stagnate. Eichel, who has 608 points in 616 career games including 239 goals and 369 assists, recorded eight power play points recently. The team also includes William Karlsson to center a second line with Reilly Smith and Mike Amadio, while the third line consists of Chandler Stephenson, Mark Stone, and Brett Howden. Vegas currently holds a 5-0-2 record.

Stone’s impact and the cap crunch

Mark Stone determines the effectiveness of the Vegas roster. The team controls 52.23 percent of shot attempts when Stone is on the ice, but this number drops to 49.42 percent without him. I view the team’s reliance on Stone as their biggest vulnerability during the heavy October schedule. The Golden Knights also manage injuries to defenseman Parker Wotherspoon, who is on long-term injured reserve, and Victor Olofsson. Jack Eichel and Noah Hanifin are also ruled out for Wednesday’s game because they are attending the State of the Union address at the White House. While Eichel and Mitch Marner form a potent duo, Vegas faces cap concerns if Eichel commands a contract near $15 to 16 million per season. Management must also account for Marner’s $12-million salary and the $9.5-million salary for Mark Stone. Alex Pietrangelo’s injury helps alleviate cap pressure through long-term injured reserve, yet the team still needs money for Pavel Dorofayev. Eichel, the 2015 second overall pick, remains a focal point of extension talks.

Player Salary or Metric
Mitch Marner $12-million
Mark Stone $9.5-million
Shea Theodore $7.43-million
Eichel xGF% vs McDavid 56.07%

The training camp remains active with 28 players left after nine players were assigned to Henderson. Five players were placed on waivers with the intention of joining the Silver Knights, while five others returned to junior hockey.

Edmonton’s divisional dominance

The Edmonton Oilers maintain control over this Pacific Division matchup. Edmonton went 3-0-1 against Vegas this season and holds a four-point lead in the division. During the 2025 playoffs, Edmonton eliminated Vegas in five games with a 1-0 overtime win in Game 5. I believe the Oilers’ depth, specifically the line of Warren Foegele, Ryan McLeod, and Derek Ryan, provides the edge needed to win. That line controlled 74.07 percent of shot attempts and 83.52 percent of expected goals against the Los Angeles Kings. Vegas has struggled to match this depth, as Eichel has struggled against Leon Draisaitl, where Vegas controlled just 45.16 percent of shot attempts, 38.65 percent of the expected goal share, and 37.84 percent of the scoring chances while being outscored 4-3. When Stone plays against McDavid, Vegas controls 46.81 percent of the shot attempts, 62.14 percent of the expected goal share, and 48.39 percent of the scoring chances, but Vegas has been outscored 2-1. When Draisaitl plays against Stone, Vegas controls 50 percent of the shot attempts, 42.61 percent of the expected goal share, and 44.83 percent of the scoring chances, but Vegas has been outscored 2-1. You should watch the Oilers’ 54.17 percent control of shot attempts during 5×5 play. Eichel led the Golden Knights in scoring with 10 points in 11 games during the last postseason. Can Vegas find a way to neutralize McDavid’s impact when the schedule tightens?

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