Canelo Alvarez: separating knockout power myths from real data

The Scull output deficit

Canelo Alvarez lost the undisputed super middleweight championship to Terence Crawford on September 12 in Las Vegas. This loss followed a May 2025 bout against IBF titlist William Scull in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where Alvarez and Scull combined to throw the fewest punches in a 12-round fight in the 40-year history of CompuBox. Alvarez threw 72 punches, while Scull threw 169. Scull outlanded Alvarez 26 to 25. Alvarez won that fight via unanimous decision with scores of 115-113, 116-112, and 119-109. One judge had the fight only one round away from being a draw. During the contest, Alvarez landed 27 body punches against Scull’s 4. Scull walked Alvarez into a right hand in the tenth round. Scull also landed an uppercut early in the fifth round. The referee warned Scull to stop running and start fighting at the beginning of the ninth round. Alvarez spent much of the 36 minutes chasing Scull down to try and force the Cuban to hold his feet. He won the fight by targeting the body with the left hook and straight right hands. Alvarez, who holds the WBC, WBA, and WBO titles, remains a two-time undisputed champion.

The Crawford decision

Terence Crawford won the undisputed super middleweight title with scores of 115-113, 115-113, and 116-112. Crawford, who is 41-0 with 31 knockouts, now holds the four super middleweight belts. The trainer Brian McIntyre states that the power of Alvarez will not sustain him during a long fight because the fighter typically slows down between the sixth and seventh rounds. Alvarez has experienced a knockout drought in his last seven fights. He struggled to produce volume against Crawford, similar to his 2022 loss to Dmitry Bivol. In that Bivol fight, Alvarez landed only 5 percent of his jabs while Bivol landed 46. His overall accuracy dropped to 18 percent in that fight. Crawford used a 3.5-inch reach advantage to control the distance. Crawford’s reach measures 74 inches compared to the 70 inches of Alvarez. Both fighters weighed 167.5 pounds for the match. Can he reclaim his position among the elite if his physical output continues to decline?

Statistical evidence of decline

The statistical history of the Mexican icon reveals a sharp decline in activity. You should note the discrepancy between his peak and his current state. At 160 pounds, he threw 45.8 punches per round. At 154 pounds, he landed 13.6 of 27.2 power punches. In his current stage, he lands 9.7 of 20.8 power punches. His highest-output rounds dropped by 37 percent compared to earlier stages of his career. His punch output over his last five fights fell by 22 percent.

Alvarez earned between $7 million and $10 million for his win against Jaime Berlanga. He won that fight via knockout in the third round. He remains the former undisputed super middleweight champion. At 154 pounds, he landed 17.8 of 39.4 punches per round. He also landed 13.6 of 27.2 power punches during that period.