Dan Campbell’s fourth-down aggression and new NFL rule changes

Aggressive fourth-down decisions

Dan Campbell drives Detroit’s offensive strategy through heavy fourth-down usage. In a win over the Packers on October 25, Campbell called a fourth-and-1 from his own 24 yard line with 4:53 remaining in the game. Jahmyr Gibbs lost two yards on the play, but Campbell chose to go for it to keep the ball out of Jordan Love’s hands. ESPN models suggested this decision increased the Lions’ win percentage by 2.5%. Detroit ranks 31st in fourth-down decision EPA this season. The team has converted 8 of 13 attempts.

The Lions go for it roughly 17 yards closer to the end zone than the Raiders, who convert on 47% of their tries and have an average of 52.4 yards to the end zone in 2025. The Lions attempt fourth downs around the opponents 29 yard line, a distance that ties them with the Texans for the second-closest average and provides a much better chance to score than teams that attack from much deeper in their own territory. Jack Fox leads the league in punts inside the 20 and 10 yard lines with 13 and 7 such punts this season. Teams like the Cowboys, Cardinals, and Giants attempt fourth downs when they are roughly 42 to 43 yards from the end zone, but those teams score on 43% or below of those drives. You should note that Detroit’s field position advantage comes from pinning opponents deep, which makes it harder for them to score. The Commanders have kept up their efficiency this year, converting on 80% of attempts, though they only have 5.

Ben Johnson and the coaching circuit

Ben Johnson directs the Lions offense, which averages 33.2 points per game. The Chicago Bears interviewed Johnson on January 11 as a top candidate for their head coaching job. Johnson oversaw an offense that gained 409.5 yards per game. He also spoke with the Jaguars. The Bears interviewed Lions defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn and offensive coach Hank Fraley during their search. The Bears search committee includes Chairman George McCaskey, President/CEO Kevin Warren, Ryan Poles, Matt Feinstein, Jeff King, and Liz Geist. Johnson told the Bears that he wants to be whatever the job requires him to be.

The Lions offensive production remains high, with Johnson leading the league in points per game. He manages Jared Goff, who has thrown for at least 4,000 yards in each of the last three seasons. Johnson has overseen 51 regular-season starts, during which Goff’s Total QBR was 64. The Chicago Bears have hired five full-time head coaches since their last playoff win in 2011. Does Johnson prioritize offensive growth over team culture in Chicago?

Pass interference and the new review rule

The NFL implements a one-year trial allowing coaches to challenge pass interference. This rule enables reviews of both called and non-called penalties when there is clear and obvious visual evidence. Replay officials may order reviews during the final two minutes of a half or the fourth quarter. The owners passed this change in a 31-1 vote after an egregious missed call in the NFC championship game involving the Rams and Saints. Dan Campbell disagrees with this rule, stating that the subjectivity makes the game muddy. The Lions have received five defensive pass interference penalties through three weeks, which is a league-high total.

Historically, coaching challenges for pass interference have seen low success rates. During one season of these rules, officials overturned only 13 of 81 challenges. The decision to allow reviews follows discussions about how missed calls affect game outcomes. In one preseason game, the Lions challenged a no-call on an incomplete pass, but the ruling on the field was upheld. The team also seeks to remove the automatic first-down stipulation for illegal contact penalties as defensive pass interference calls increase. The decision to allow these challenges follows a period where coaches like Matt Patricia used challenge flags to learn how officials evaluate contact.