The price of Dan Campbell’s fourth down gambling

Detroit leads the league in fourth down attempts

Dan Campbell maintains the most aggressive fourth-down profile in the NFL. The Lions lead the league with a 4.73 Aggression Z-Score, while the Washington Commanders follow with a 3.73. This identity stems from a strategy where the team attempts fourth downs more frequently than any other roster. In 2024, the Lions offense averaged 33.2 points per game. The team remains the only franchise in the last 30 years to average one fourth-down conversion per game for four consecutive seasons. Jack Fox currently leads the league in punts inside the 20 and 10 yard lines with 22 total punts, 13 ending inside the 20 and 7 inside the 10. This punting efficiency supports a philosophy that allows for risk elsewhere. You should know that this aggressiveness works because the Lions often face fourth-and-short situations. The team went for it on all nine qualifying fourth-and-1 opportunities and seven of 11 qualifying fourth-and-2 opportunities. The Lions lead the league in fourth-down attempts, while the 49ers had the fewest this season at 14. Detroit’s 48.9% success rate on fourth down, including postseason, remains a defining characteristic. The Lions also tend to go for it roughly 17 yards closer to the end zone than teams like the Raiders.

Failed decisions in the NFC Championship

The aggressive approach failed during the 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers in the NFC Championship. The Lions offense averages 33.2 points per game, but the aggressive approach failed during the 34-31 loss to the San Francisco 49ers because the team rejected two field goal attempts in the second half. The first failure occurred with 7:03 left in the third quarter on a fourth-and-2 from the 49ers 28 yard line. Josh Reynolds dropped a pass from Jared Goff, which prevented a three-score lead of 27-10. Later, with 7:38 remaining in the fourth quarter, the Lions faced fourth-and-3 from the 30 yard line while trailing 27-24. A Fourth Down Decision Calculator showed a less than 1% difference in the decision to go for it versus kicking the field goal. Goff threw a deep pass to Amon-Ra St. Brown that fell out of reach. Tom Brady called the decision a flat-out error. George Kittle also questioned why analytics experts claim momentum is not real. Campbell chose to trust his players over kicker Michael Badgley, who had only been on the active roster for a little more than a month. The first failed attempt left the score at 24-24 in the third quarter. The second failed attempt left the Lions trailing in the fourth quarter. This follows a pattern of errors involving deception, such as a 2-point conversion loss in 2023 caused by a referee mistake.

A new coaching standard for the league

This gambling style is becoming a league-wide trend as other coaches mimic the Detroit approach. Mike Kafka, who serves as the Lions passing game coordinator, posted an AgIx of 2.47 while coaching the Giants. The Lions’ strategy of extending drives to wear down defenses uses a calculated method to maximize expected points. However, Campbell’s tendency to ignore the field goal option can be a catastrophic error when the offense struggles to execute. I find it difficult to justify the second fourth-down attempt in San Francisco since the pass to St. Brown had no chance of being caught. The coaching staff faces increasing scrutiny because aggressive decisions rely entirely on player execution. Even with the loss, the Lions remain a high-octane offense. The Commanders have kept up efficiency this year, converting 80% of their 5 attempts. The Chiefs converted 79% of their 14 attempts. Does the trend of fourth-down aggression eventually hit a ceiling where coaches must prioritize points over momentum?