Tracking the Central Division race between Stars and Avalanche

Standings and goal differential gaps

I monitor the goal differential and total points to gauge the gap between the Colorado Avalanche and the Dallas Stars. Colorado sits at 6 points with a +12 goal differential from scoring 23 goals and allowing 11. Dallas has 4 points and a +4 goal differential from scoring 10 goals and allowing 6. Colorado holds the 6th position while Dallas sits at 22nd. I look at the scoring difference between the 23 goals for Colorado and the 10 goals for Dallas to determine how the goal differential might impact a tiebreaker later in the season. I see Colorado has a 3-1-0 record in their last 10 meetings, while Dallas holds a 2-2-0 record. Colorado enters this stretch with a W1 streak, whereas Dallas carries a W2 streak. The 18-goal difference in scoring between the two teams shows a gap in offensive power.

Scoring periods and player production

I analyze the scoring output by period to identify late-game vulnerabilities. Colorado scores 1.25 goals in the first, 3.00 in the second, and 1.50 in the third. Dallas scores 0.75 in the first, 1.50 in the second, and a measly 0.25 in the third. Dallas effectively disappears in the third period. I also monitor individual player production to see who drives the offense.

MacKinnon leads the scoring with 8 points in 5 games and a 1.60 points per game average, including 1 power play goal and 1 power play point. Schwartz provides 6 points in 4 games and a 1.50 points per game average, with 1 power play goal and 1 power play point. Makar also has 6 points in 5 games and a 1.20 points per game average, including 1 power play goal and 1 power play point. Rantanen delivers 7 points in 5 games and a 1.40 points per game average, including 2 power play goals and 2 power play points. Johnston has 5 points in 5 games and a 1.00 points per game average, with 1 power play goal and 2 power play points. Robertson has 3 points in 5 games and a 0.60 points per game average, and he has 0 power play goals and 0 power play points. I compare the scoring of the Colorado leaders to the Dallas players to see the gap. MacKinnon’s 8 points exceed Rantanen’s 7 points, while Schwartz and Makar’s 6 points each exceed Johnston’s 5 points. I monitor the power play production to see who manages the special teams effectively, noting that MacKinnon, Schwartz, and Makar each have 1 power play point, while Rantanen and Johnston have 2. Robertson has 0.

Tiebreaker math and team efficiency

I focus on the points percentage and goal differential when assessing a potential tiebreaker between these two teams. I calculate the points percentage by dividing the points by games played to see the efficiency of each team. Colorado has 6 points in 5 games, while Dallas has 4 points in 5 games. You should note that the 6 points earned by Colorado against the 4 points earned by Dallas creates a distinct gap in the standings. When checking the tiebreaker, I examine how Colorado’s 23 goals scored and 11 goals against compare to Dallas’s 10 goals scored and 6 goals against to determine which advantage the goal differential provides.

The disparity in goal differential between +12 for Colorado and +4 for Dallas shows how much more offensive pressure Colorado provides. I watch the discrepancy in the third period where Colorado scores 1.50 goals and Dallas scores only 0.25 goals. How will Dallas compensate for their third-period scoring drought? I track the 23 goals for Colorado against the 10 goals for Dallas to see if the goal differential holds.