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Cubs bullpen volatility and postseason management risks

Craig Counsell faces significant bullpen instability following Daniel Palencia's injury and a 4.94 ERA in June. This volatility mirrors the Baltimore Orioles' pitching collapse under Brandon Hyde and coincides with new 2026 ABS challenge rules for pitchers and catchers.

Cubs bullpen volatility and postseason management risks

The Cubs bullpen surrendered eight runs in only 1.67 innings during a Saturday loss to the Toronto Blue Jays, an implosion that highlights the massive instability facing a relief corps that lacks the consistency required for a deep postseason run. You know how much the bullpen matters in October, yet I see Craig Counsell struggling to manage the same reliability he once enjoyed in Milwaukee. The loss of closer Daniel Palencia to an oblique injury and a mild flexor strain has limited his availability to only 19 appearances this season and forced Counsell to rethink his entire late-inning strategy for managing his most vital bullpen relievers. The decision to move Ben Brown to the rotation to cover for injuries left a void in the relief depth that no one has filled. Phil Maton, signed to a two-year, $14 million deal, struggled early in the season by allowing six runs on six hits and four walks in just four innings of work. The bullpen’s ERA trended downward to 4.94 in June, and the unit recorded five blown saves in six opportunities that month. Furthermore, the Cubs rank last in the majors with 23 holds. Jacob Webb, who carries a 4.02 ERA, was a central figure in the Saturday collapse. This differs from the stability provided by Brad Keller, who signed a two-year, $22 million deal with the Phillies after the Cubs let him leave.

Lessons from the Baltimore collapse

The Baltimore Orioles’ 15-28 start forced the front office to fire manager Brandon Hyde. This decision followed a 2025 collapse and shows the consequences of a depleted pitching staff. The Orioles’ front office failed to strengthen the rotation and bullpen during the offseason, leaving a depleted pitching staff to endure a 15-28 start and a last-place finish in the AL East division standings this year. Hyde’s dismissal marked the third managerial change in MLB in just one week, following the exits of Bud Black and Derek Shelton. Even with Tony Mansolino serving as interim manager, the team remains 11.5 games behind first place. The Orioles gave up 10 runs in both remaining games of their recent sweep by the Washington Nationals, which proves the staff cannot stop the bleeding. The team’s lack of energy following the firing suggests a roster that has already accepted its fate. The Orioles’ pitching staff remains one of the weakest in the league because the front office failed to bolster the rotation. Can a change in leadership fix a pitching staff that the front office failed to strengthen?

The 2026 ABS challenge rules

The 2026 ABS Challenge System introduces new pressures for pitchers and catchers during high-leverage moments. Each team starts the game with two challenges and keeps them if they are successful. Only the pitcher, catcher, or batter can initiate a challenge by tapping their hat or helmet immediately after a pitch. No help from the dugout or other players is allowed during this process.

Rule Type Specification
Challenge Count Two per game; keep if successful
Initiators Pitcher, catcher, or batter only
Signaling Method Tap hat or helmet
Extra Innings New challenge if none remaining

During spring training, teams used about four challenges per game, which added an average of one minute to the duration of the game while players successfully overturned the calls about fifty percent of the time. The system uses cameras around the field perimeter to track the location of each pitch and displays the result on the scoreboard for players and fans. If a player is successful, they keep the challenge. If they fail, the team loses one. The request must come right after the pitch, leaving no room for hesitation. Players like Manny Machado and Tarik Skubal experienced the possibility of such calls during recent testing.

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