Paul Skenes faces workload challenges in Pirates postseason push

Performance dips and Cy Young odds

Paul Skenes holds a 9-11 record with a 3.82 ERA after 174.1 innings pitched this season. He recorded 200 strikeouts, which ranks fourth in the National League. These numbers fall short of his 2025 campaign when he won the Cy Young Award. Despite this decline, he maintains +300 odds for the 2026 National League Cy Young. His season includes 20 home runs allowed. He pitched in 32 Major League games during the regular season. At home, he recorded 38 strikeouts and 5 walks. In his home games, he allowed 11 home runs and 46 total runs. On the road, he allowed 9 home runs and 36 total runs. On the road, he posted a 4.13 ERA over 74.1 innings, while his home ERA sits at 3.87 over 100 innings. He allowed 84 hits at home and 64 hits on the road. Skenes struggled with his command, walking 27 batters at home and 22 on the road. He allowed 43 earned runs at home and 34 on the road. He has only pitched six innings or fewer in six of his recent nine starts. I find his recent performance frustrating to watch because he allowed 57 earned runs over his last nine starts. His home run rate per fly ball reached 14.3% over his last nine starts, a massive jump from his 6.3% rate in 2025.

Mechanical shifts and recovery needs

Manager Don Kelly pushed Skenes’ next start back three days to allow for recovery. Kelly stated the decision did not involve an injury. Skenes averaged 95.7 mph on his fastball against the Marlins, a drop from his 98.1 mph average last season, which shows how much he struggles with fatigue during the long grind of the season. He also changed his mechanics, throwing from a 26 degree angle instead of 23 degrees. This shift added an extra inch of extension. One analyst identified a problem with his arm path, calling it a "Reverse Acceleration Bounce" that puts stress on the UCL. This movement produces gapping of the elbow joint and tensions the ligament. He also faces risks of sub-acromial impingement and posterior shoulder strain. You know how quickly these injuries derail a season.

The decline in velocity also impacts his command. His zone percentage dropped from 50.8% to 46.4% this year. Hitters are no longer swinging over his sinker as often as they did last season. Last year, hitters swung over the pitch 27% of the time, but this year that number fell to 9%. This change in effectiveness makes it harder for him to dominate hitters.

Carrying the Pirates without Griffin

The Pirates need Skenes to lead them because Konnor Griffin will miss eight to ten weeks with a sagittal band injury. Griffin injured his left finger while diving for a ground ball. Skenes must now carry the pitching staff as the team pushes for the playoffs. His recent performance shows a 5.79 ERA over 46.2 innings in his last nine starts. This comes as the team faces a difficult road. His ERA rose significantly from his 1.97 mark in 2025. The Pirates defense also failed him, posting -18 fielding runs this season. This total ranks fifth worst in the majors. Skenes recorded a -7 FRV during his recent skid, which ties for the worst defensive showing behind any pitcher this season. Oneil Cruz lost a fly ball in the sun that became a bases-clearing triple, and Nick Gonzales allowed two runs on a throw home that hit a runner. Skenes must also contend with the loss of Griffin, whose absence leaves the lineup without its leadoff hitter and momentum generator. Can he sustain this heavy workload through October?