The future of the Western Conference play-in race

The In-Season Tiebreaker Shift

The NBA Board of Governors discussed a proposal to use in-season tournament results as a tiebreaker for the playoffs, a move that could change how teams approach the Emirates NBA Cup starting on October 31. Currently, the first playoff tiebreaker remains the regular season head-to-head matchup. The league is polling general managers about using the round a team reaches in the tournament as the primary tiebreaker instead. I find this shift toward tournament relevance a logical progression. The Cup tiebreaker sequence for group standings follows a specific order: head-to-head record, point differential, total points scored, the 2023-24 regular season record, and a random drawing. A prize pool exists for players on teams that reach the Knockout Round. Payouts increase based on advancement: $514,971 for the championship winner, $205,988 for the losing championship team, $102,994 for losing semi-finalists, and $51,497 for losing quarter-finalists. The semifinals and championship move to a neutral site, the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, though the semifinals are played at the home arena of the higher-seeded team.

Groups are built using a seeded draw where teams fall into five tiers. A Pot 1 team always hosts its games against Pot 2 and Pot 4, while traveling to face Pot 3 and Pot 5.

The Western Conference Landscape

The Western Conference play-in race depends on how teams navigate the upcoming months. The Golden State Warriors hold the sixth seed and aim to avoid the play-in tournament. They face the Phoenix Suns, who manage Kevin Durant’s left ankle sprain. Durant suffered the injury on March 30 against Houston. The Suns’ offensive rating was 114.9 since the All-Star Break, while the Warriors’ rating was 114.4. I find the Suns’ offensive production particularly concerning. They ranked 28th in scoring during that same stretch, which makes them a tough out. Meanwhile, the Oklahoma City Thunder remain the top team in the West. They hold the best defensive rating in the league at 107.6 since the All-Star Weekend. The Thunder also post the seventh-highest bench scoring in the league with 45 points per game since March. The Warriors rank 27th in scoring since the All-Star Break, while the Thunder record 1,173 rebounds to sit 15th in that category since the 2026 All-Star Break. The Thunder started the season with a 24-1 run and are the reigning champions after winning a Game 7 of the NBA Finals last year. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the reigning NBA MVP and Finals MVP.

Play-In Seeding and Load Management

The play-in tournament determines the final two playoff seeds from the seventh through tenth positions. The seventh seed plays the eighth seed, while the winner of the ninth versus tenth game faces the loser of the 7-8 matchup. You already know the Play-In format, so let’s focus on the Western Conference math. I think the Warriors have a better chance of securing a higher seed than Phoenix. The Suns’ situation remains precarious due to Durant’s injury. How will the Suns manage Durant’s availability once the regular season intensity increases? The Lakers remain in contention for a Play-In berth after winning five consecutive games. They face a challenge against the Houston Rockets, who rank fourth in the NBA in scoring defense by allowing 110 points per game. The Rockets also lead the league in rebounding, averaging 48.1 rebounds per game. The Lakers’ number-two scorer, Austin Reaves, is expected to miss the first round of the playoffs. This Lakers squad faces a tough path against Houston, especially since the Rockets’ starting five leads the NBA in points per game this season with 87.6 points. Luka Doncic is back from his treatment in Spain, but there is still a chance he will miss some games in the series. LeBron James is 41 years old and cannot will his team to a playoff series victory alone.