Matthews and the expected goals debate

Auston Matthews has 8 goals in 11 games for the 2026-27 season. He has 10 points and 33 shots. His shooting percentage is 24.2 percent. He is the favorite at +190 to win the Rocket Richard Trophy. His performance challenges the accuracy of expected goal models because his high shot volume and precision frequently produce scoring results that statistical models based on shot location and angle consistently fail to predict. Analysts note that shot-on-goal volume has a higher correlation with his scoring than expected goals. High-volume shooters test the limits of public and private models. Analysts use the NHL’s real-time scoring system data to track puck movement and player location.

Matthews scored 60 goals in 73 games last season. He had 41 goals in 52 games in 2020-21. Nathan MacKinnon says the technique and power of the shot is pretty to look at. He notes the rhythm of the shot is excellent. He says Matthews definitely shot a million pucks as a kid.

Toronto’s Line Shuffling Experiment

Head coach Jim Hiller moved William Nylander to the top line alongside Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic. This group has produced 5 goals and 7 assists through seven games. The change followed a 5-4 loss to the Utah Mammoth on Tuesday. In that game, the third line of Gavin McKenna, Nick Paul, and Colton Sissons produced zero shot attempts at 5-on-5 and allowed 12 shot attempts. The line with John Tavares, Easton Cowan, and Nylander had an expected goals share of 16 percent, per NaturalStatTrick.com.

Training camp saw different variations. The first line included Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews, and Jack Roslovic. The second line consisted of McKenna, Tavares, and Nylander. The third line included Nick Paul, Colton Sissons, and Easton Cowan. On day two, the coaching staff used a variation with Nick Paul in the middle, alongside Cowan, Sissons, and Dakota Joshua. The team also tested a combination of Blueger, Duhaime, and Steven Lorentz. The club is deciding if it will use 11 forwards and seven defensemen or four full lines. Marchenko is still trying to find chemistry after arriving via trade from the Columbus Blue Jackets the day before the regular season began. He says the skill of Matthews and Tavares makes him excited. He also says it is fun to play with his new teammates. The 18-year-old McKenna skates with 21-year-old Cowan. The team prepares to face the Sabres on Thursday. Will this shuffle work?

The Rocket Richard Race

The Rocket Richard Trophy is named for Maurice Richard, the first player to score 50 goals in 50 games and the first to reach 500 career goals. Leon Draisaitl has +600 odds to win, while Connor McDavid has +650. Alex Ovechkin has +800. Kirill Kaprizov and Kyle Connor have +1,400.

Matthews is 24 years old and scored 47 goals in 70 games during the 2019-20 season. Last season, he won the Rocket Richard Trophy with 41 goals. Leon Draisaitl finished second with 55 goals. You should watch if Matthews remains the favorite.