McDavid’s October scoring surge meets data scrutiny
Connor McDavid has recorded 24 points in 8 games this October, maintaining a 1.47 points per game pace. While he drives every Oilers victory, declining power play shot volume from players like Zach Hyman highlights the team's heavy dependency on his production.
Scoring milestones arrive fast
Connor McDavid has recorded 24 points in 8 games this October. He enters his 12th season with 794 career games and 1,220 points. He needs only six appearances to reach his 800 games milestone. He also chases 1,300 career points, a target that requires 80 more points. His scoring pace this season sits at 1.47 points per game through 19 games. He currently holds 8 goals and 28 points. McDavid sits ninth in the NHL scoring race, tied with Leon Draisaitl and Nathan MacKinnon. He recently surpassed Jari Kurri for second place on the franchise even-strength points list with 725 points. To reach the top spot, he must catch Wayne Gretzky, who recorded 1,122 even-strength points in 696 games. He holds 1,124 overall points and ranks second in franchise scoring. He also holds 749 assists and 375 goals. He also ranks sixth on the franchise goal-scoring list with 375 tallies. McDavid won the Conn Smythe Trophy in 2024 when the team fell to the Florida Panthers in the Stanley Cup Final. Leon Draisaitl enters this season with 855 games, 434 goals, and 1,053 points. He needs just 16 goals to hit 450. He also needs 47 more points to reach 1,100. I find his production levels remain at an elite tier.
The power play dependency myth
The Oilers rely on McDavid for every single win this season. He has recorded a point in 100% of the team’s victories. This statistic reveals a structural problem within the Edmonton roster. While McDavid produces, the supporting cast fails to provide steady depth scoring. The Oilers sit at 8-12-1 and trail the Nashville Predators by five points for a wild-card spot.
I see how much the team struggles when McDavid does not drive the scoring. His power play shot volume fell from 20 shots per hour in 2022-23 to 15 in 2023-24 and then to 11 in 2024-25. This drop in volume affects the man advantage. Even Zach Hyman shows a decline, as his power play goals per hour fell from 3.5 in 2022-23 to 1.6 in 2024-25. Hyman also missed time with a wrist injury during the 2025 playoffs. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins also saw a decline, as his power play shots per hour fell from 11.5 in 2022-23 to less than 9 in the last two seasons. The team improved to 5-3-0 under Kris Knoblauch after a 3-9-1 start. You might wonder if the team can survive a stretch where McDavid’s shooting volume stays low.
New tracking data and officiating
New data transparency mandates provide deeper insights into player contributions. The league provides metrics like Expected Primary Points, which combines expected goals and expected primary assists into one bucket. This tracking system also defines "Rush" as offense created following a controlled zone entry. These tools help clarify whether a player drives play through shot contributions or setups. I find the availability of these metrics helpful for understanding true performance.
The system also tracks "Coverage Exit" when a team recovers a loose puck and transitions with possession out of their zone. It tracks "Dump-in Retrieval" when offense originates from a player retrieving an intentionally dumped puck. The combination of expected goals and expected primary assists forms the Expected Primary Points metric, a bucket designed to capture a player’s shot contributions in one word. While the NHL officials struggle with inconclusive camera angles, the league could adopt the player-and-puck-tracking technologies used by MLB to remove subjectivity from offside and goal-line reviews. These technological tools exist to ensure game-to-game officiating stays as close to ideal as possible. The system also defines "Neutral Zone Re-entry" as an offense that comes from a gathered loose puck or forced uncontrolled exit.
